Holiday spending projected to grow up to 5%: NPD

Holiday spending projected to grow up to 5%: NPD

Retail dive


Dive Brief:

  • Joining other reports in predicting a better holiday season for retailers, a new report from The NPD Group projects that this year's holiday spending will increase by 3% in November and December. Taking into account October and early January, holiday spending could increase by 5%, the NPD group estimated.

  • The report also said that 29% of U.S. shoppers anticipate spending more this year. Higher spending will be primarily driven by people who are planning to spend $1,000 or more.

  • One-third of shoppers expect to purchase more gifts because they plan to visit family and friends over the holidays, per the release.

Dive Insight: This year's holiday season will be a bit less worrisome for retailers and consumers alike, but according to the NPD Group's research, the majority of shoppers still think this year's holiday season will look more like last year than 2019.

More than half of shoppers (58%) said they are open to shopping in stores now that vaccines are widely available. Nearly a third of shoppers said they were less worried about the COVID-19 virus than last year, according to the report.

"New optimism, along with underlying uncertainty, are fueling shopping expectations, making this a more complex holiday season for consumers and marketers, alike," Marshal Cohen, chief retail industry adviser for NPD, said in a statement. "But retailers and manufacturers that remain flexible will be able to navigate the diverse landscape of consumer behavior and arrive at a successful holiday result."

Some pandemic shopping behaviors are likely to show up again this holiday season. This year, 51% of consumers intend to shop before Thanksgiving compared to 49% in 2020. Store-only shoppers are increasingly becoming omnichannel shoppers, and free shipping, which is the top influence for where consumers decide to shop, gained more importance this year.

The NPD Group's findings echo other reports that predict an uptick in sales this holiday season. Last week, installment payments company Klarna released a report indicating that 34% of consumers plan to spend more on gifts this year than last year, and over half of them are increasing their budgets between $101 and $500. In mid-September, Deloitte projected holiday shopping sales could rise between 7% and 9%.

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